According to a recent report by economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel commissioned by the Urban Taskforce, Melbourne could overtake Sydney to become Australia's largest city by 2037 as home construction in Sydney continues to lag well behind its southern rival.
Aaron Gadiel, chief executive officer at the Urban Taskforce, said in a statement that Sydney's population growth rate will fall to 0.9 percent a year whilst Melbourne will see population growth of about 1.3 percent a year, swelling the number of people there to 5.7 million by 2036.
With Melbourne's population already reaching the 4 million mark in mid 2009, over the next 25 to 27 years, a staggering 1.7 million people will need to be accommodated.
“Over the past decade, Melbourne has proved far more capable of accommodating extra people than Sydney,” he said. “If the recently revised state government Metropolitan Strategy housing targets for Sydney are delivered, then Sydney’s population in 2036 would remain greater than that in Melbourne. However, that’s simply not going to happen without significant reform of the planning system.”
The BIS report found that Victoria is currently building new homes at double the rate of New South Wales, and without reform, the supply of additional homes would reach 17,000 a year, well below the minimum 25,000 a year needed for Sydney to “keep its head above water,” Mr. Gadiel concluded.